Don’t believe that dividends matter? Take a look at this…
Some investors believe that dividends don’t matter. That a few additional percentage points of return doesn’t make a lot of difference.
If you’re a speculator who’s aiming for a 300% gain on a hot stock tip, then who cares about a measly 3 or 4 percent dividend? Dividends (which are distributions of a company’s earnings issued to shareholders) are rounding errors – Right?
Well, if you can consistently – that is, over an investment lifetime – generate enormous capital gains regardless of market conditions, then congratulations, you’re in the top 0.00001% of all investors anywhere and anytime, and dividends matter less.
But, if you’re a mere investment mortal, dividends are central to your returns. Over the past 10 years, in many markets, dividends have been the only thing separating you from making money, or losing it.
For example, in terms of capital appreciation, Singapore equities have lost an average 0.2% of their value per year over the last 10 years. But, with compounded dividends, the return was 3.7% per year. That’s not a great return – but it’s a whole lot better than a negative return (see graph A for more).
The US is the only major market where you would have made more through simple capital appreciation than compounded dividends over the past 10 years. For everywhere else, dividends have made all the difference.
I’ll explain this in a minute. But first, understanding how a seemingly lousy 3-4 percent dividend yield can make such a big difference is a function of the most powerful force in finance: Compound interest.
The magic of compounding
Here’s how compounding works… You invest a sum of money that generates a steady return. But instead of taking that return and spending it, you reinvest by buying more of the original investment. The next year, both the original investment and the reinvested interest will earn an interest, which you again reinvest.
With compounding, your original investment is growing in size due to repeated reinvestment, and every year, you are getting a larger and larger sum of interest. It’s like a snowball rolling downhill, growing bigger in size as it picks up more snow along the way.
Let’s say an investor puts $10,000 in a deposit paying a 5% dividend annually.
At the end of the first year, he is paid $500. But, instead of taking this dividend out of his account, he reinvests the $500 on the same terms.
At the end of the second year, he’ll receive a dividend of $525 (5% on $10,000 + 5% on $500). He reinvests this, and the invested amount grows to $11,025.
At the end of the third year, the investor will receive $551.25 in dividends. His investible sum has now grown to $11,576.25. Note the similarity to a snowball… The money that is working for the investor is growing larger every year.
The amount the investor receives every year is increasing due to the magical effect of compounding.
This is how big a difference dividends make
In some markets, over the past 10 years, dividends have accounted for more of your return, over the long term, than capital appreciation. Yes, that measly 3% yield contributed more to returns than the actual price appreciation of the underlying stock or market. And, in a few markets, investors would be losing money if not for dividends.
As shown in the figure above, Chinese stocks returned 0.4% per year based solely on capital appreciation. But, with compounded dividends, they returned 2.9% annually.
Meanwhile, Asia Pacific excluding Japan stocks returned just 0.7% of their value on the basis of capital appreciation. But with compounded dividends, they returned 3.4 percent.
As I mentioned, the US is the only market where you would have made more through simple capital appreciation than compounded dividends – thanks to the country’s bull market.
The difference in performance is astounding – and is one reason why investors should include high-quality dividend stocks in their portfolio.
So, where can you find high-quality dividend stocks?
If you’re looking for dividend stocks, look to Asia.
As you can see in the chart below, there are 235 stocks from the Asia Pacific ex Japan region (that are part of the MSCI All Country World Index) that yield greater than 3 percent. Europe has just 178, and the US has just 111.
So if you’re looking for high-yielding stocks, start your search in Asia for companies yielding 3% or more.
Remember, it might not seem like another 3-4% is worth paying attention to; but it could make all the difference, and help you generate enormous returns over time.