When I first met Buddhi Karunaratne, six years ago for a chat, he did not appear like somebody who could trigger a series of events that would eventually oust an elected President. Perhaps even he didn’t anticipate this. Still, this is exactly what this young advertising executive and his peers did.
On March 22, angered by the difficult conditions including – 10 hour power cuts, the unavailability of fuel and challenges for people to make a living – he posted on Facebook inviting friends to join him at a street protest at Viharamahadevi Park. He was prepared to hold a placard alone, if nobody turned up. But they did, over 500 turned up. That was the first citizens street protest in Colombo, which was soon repeated all over the island, and accelerated to daily protests. Protests would have ignited without him of course, all the necessary ingredients were present, but it was Karunaratne who lit the first match of Aragalaya.
Much later, as one of the leaders of the Aragalaya, Karunaratne, at Temple Trees, explained to President Ranil Wickremasinghe why he and the youth of the country took to the streets. With carefully chosen words he presented the root causes. While assuring their struggle wasn’t against an individual, he said it would last till the root causes are properly addressed. The President listened and nodded.
Karunaratne was a youth leader, but not the only one. Tens of thousands of people participated in what was broadly known as the ‘Aragalaya’. They literally lived at so-called ‘GotaGoGama’, the protest site at Galle Face green, and several other places islandwide. When thugs attacked the protest site on May ninth, the activists responded with force leading to several deaths (including that of an MP and his bodyguard) and many residences of mostly politicians burned to ashes. On July 9th, activists forced their way into and occupied the President’s House, President’s Office, Prime Minister’s Office, and Temple Trees. Their actions forced the resignations of the President, Prime Minister, and key cabinet ministers. A new political administration took over to first restore stability.
My intention is not a post-mortem of the ‘Aragalaya’. Local and international pundits have analyzed the circumstances that led to ‘Aragalaya’. I would rather focus on the future. Several triggers that led to something like ‘Aragalaya’ still exist. While we are temporarily out of the troubled waters, ‘Aragalaya 2.0’ is possible. Another Buddhi Karunaratne might soon strike the first match. Against that backdrop, my question is: Is the country ready for another ‘Aragalaya’? Can we bear the economic burden it would impose?
Awesome Aragalaya. That was how a senior business journalist summed it. Could this awesome and noble ‘Aragalaya’ be a burden to the nation? Yes, it could and it certainly was. While the activists may not recognise it or perhaps might not be ready to accept it, ‘Aragalaya’ did cause some economic damage. Despite all its positive outcomes – yes, it did well to give power to people, obliterated for a time ethnic and religious differences, it imposed an economic cost.
Let the evidence speak. Chart one compares tourist arrivals from January 2017 to December 2018, a two-year period. The Easter bomb attacks happened in 2019 to be followed by Covid-19 in the next two years. Even in August 2021, tourist arrivals were poor. They picked up in September the same year. By December, arrivals were nearly 90,000, compared to 250,000 that can be expected in a good year. Still, it was 36% of the normal level. By March, arrivals crossed 100,000. Then an economic crisis and “Aragalaya’ unfolded during April to June. These are usually low months for tourist arrivals, but the drop we witnessed was significant.
While setbacks are most visible in tourist arrivals, it is not the only one. Activists didn’t just spend their free time at Galle Face, many skipped productive work to protest; an activity that does not generate economic value. Then, on May 9, responding by counter-violence, activists burned buses and other vehicles that brought political supporters to Colombo. Arson attacks on the homes of politicians, including the home of the Rajapaksa family in Hambantota destroyed these residences. While most of these were private property, it is highly likely the state may pay generous compensation to the victims, who coincidentally, are the custodians of public finance. The long-term economic impact of these is unknown.
Further, a cash-strapped government now has to mend the unintentional damage to the President’s House and Secretariat, the Prime Minister’s House, and Temple Trees during the weeks of forced occupation. In a way, we are lucky that it was just money we lost, not lives.
Sri Lanka’s economy is reported to contract by 8.4 percent in the second quarter of 2022 compared to the same period a year ago, its steepest quarterly decline since records were maintained. Factors like the unavailability of agro chemicals and other commodities like fuel, more than any Aragalaya were responsible for this.
This brings us to an important juncture. Right now we may be enjoying a break; some peace. Still, some of the root causes that led to Aragalaya are present. We are yet to reach a consensus on debt restructuring, economic growth has been low in 2022 and may remain at a low level for some time; inflation has sky-rocketed; one million odd tuk-tuk drivers have to support their families with the income from five litres of petrol a week. In short, Aragalaya 2.0 might be brewing at this point. But that is not something we should look forward to.
Greece first saw an economic decline in 2008, in the immediate aftermath of the Global Recession, and it took the country six years to record a positive growth rate of 0.5%. Sri Lanka’s case can deteriorate to a similar level. What both policymakers and people must understand is there won’t be a second chance. Only a political consensus will ensure we would not again be protesting. Reaching that consensus, is perhaps, one of the most important acts in avoiding another series of disasters.
Only a political consensus will ensure we would not again be protesting. Reaching that consensus, is perhaps, one of the most important acts in avoiding another series of disasters