Domestic food production is at risk of dropping significantly in 2026, according to a report by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS), affecting food security and price stability following Cyclone Ditwah’s impact on the agricultural sector during the 2025 Maha cultivation season.
“The Maha season contributes roughly two-thirds of the rice production with the planting of approximately 800,000 hectares each year,” says the IPS. Current estimates indicate that 70% of the year’s crop was planted during this season, most of which has suffered severe weather damage. 95,799 hectares of other field crops and 13,463 hectares of vegetables have also sustained extensive losses.
Today, as the Disaster Management Centre (DMC)’s Joint Rapid Needs Assessment notes, “Floods have worsened risks, leaving 1.5 million people in districts classified as moderate to high food insecurity risk.”
Crop Damage Intensified by Timing
The cyclone’s timing intensified its impact on agriculture. The storm coincided with the early stages of the Maha cropping season, Sri Lanka’s principal cultivation period. The affected field crops were at vulnerable stages of growth when torrential rains, flooding, and strong winds struck. This meant young plants were submerged or uprooted, and land then remained waterlogged for extended periods, delaying sowing and damaging soils at scale.
Key Crop Destruction
Separately, 108,000 hectares of rice, 11,000 hectares of other field crops, and 6,600 hectares of maize have been destroyed completely, according to Secretary to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock, DP Wickremesinghe. These losses extend beyond food production to feed and input markets. Maize, for example, serves as a critical input for livestock and poultry industries.
“Floods have worsened risks, leaving 1.5 million people in districts classified as moderate to high food insecurity risk.”
The destruction of maize crops, as noted by the DMC, may therefore have knock-on effects on feed availability and prices in related agricultural subsectors, in turn reducing overall agricultural productivity in sectors that depend on maize as an essential component of their value chain.
Price Volatility and Inflation
Following the cyclone, the IPS notes that vegetable prices for key staples such as carrots, cabbage, beans, and tomatoes spiked sharply following the disruption to production and transport networks. In some of these markets, prices rose by as much as 100% to 350% in the days after Ditwah made landfall.
Such price inflation not only affects consumer expenditure patterns, but also feeds into broader inflationary pressures across the economy, complicating monetary policy decisions.
Transport and Logistics Disruptions
Transportation and logistics disruptions contributed to these price effects, since flooded roads and damaged infrastructure affected the movement of produce from rural areas to urban markets.
The IPS considers the restoration of transport links critical not only for ensuring that crops reach consumers, but also for supporting farmers’ ability to realise economic value from their produce. Delays can lead to increased post‐harvest losses, further diminishing effective supply and deepening economic losses within the farm sector.
Smallholders Face Harsh Losses
Smallholder farmers play a large role in the country’s agricultural landscape. These producers typically operate on modest plots and lack substantial capital reserves or access to insurance mechanisms that could mitigate the economic shock of widespread crop failure.
“Smallholder paddy farmers, vegetable growers, and artisanal fishers form the core of rural economic activity and are among the most affected by the cyclone’s aftermath.”
Reports from the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations emphasise that smallholder paddy farmers, vegetable growers, and artisanal fishers form the core of rural economic activity and are among the most affected by the cyclone’s aftermath. Damaged tools, lost livestock, and disrupted market access further compound income losses.
Supply Chains Disrupted
As per the DMC report, around 200 roads and 10 bridges have been destroyed, disrupting food supply chains and market access. Vegetable markets are operating at reduced capacity, supermarkets face closures in hard-hit areas, and transport from Nuwara Eliya to major markets is restricted.
Unless transport networks, storage, markets, and communications are restored soon, farmers will face heavy post-harvest losses. Damaged roads are also blocking timely delivery of fertiliser and seeds, slowing recovery.
The DMC report says damage to storage and cooling facilities has spoiled perishable crops, while market closures and communication failures have disrupted supply chains. These disruptions are weakening rural livelihoods, worsening food insecurity, and slowing recovery in farming and fishing communities.
A Road to Recovery
“The immediate priority is to restore the physical flow of food from producing areas to the main wholesale and retail markets to normalcy,” notes the IPS.
Though the disruption to supply chains and recovery efforts are intertwined, the rapid distribution of seed paddy, vegetable, and other field crop seeds can enable replanting during the ongoing Maha season. Similarly, fertiliser, tools and basic machinery can help farmers resume cultivation.
Proposed measures also include cash-for-work programmes to clear debris, repair field bunds and restore minor canals and drainage systems damaged by flooding. Targetted agricultural extension services are being recommended to assess crop health and guide post-inundation management, while broader support is planned across agriculture, livestock and fisheries to rebuild incomes.
As the IPS points out, “It is necessary to safeguard the most vulnerable house-holds during the time of price fluctuations.”