“Pakistan is at war within itself. And that war is about its soul.”
Ahmed Rashid (a prominent Pakistani journalist, author, and political analyst)
I have been contributing to this journal for nearly two decades, yet I cannot recall ever writing about Pakistan. For me, it always felt like a distant world—almost as remote as Alpha Centauri—far beyond the scope of my usual path. My work has primarily focused on development issues in Sri Lanka, and Pakistan has not played a direct or significant role in that context. To be fair, Pakistan has consistently acted as a sincere friend to Sri Lanka, but until now, there simply hasn’t been a compelling reason for me to bring Pakistan into my analytical frame.
The times are changing—and with them, so too must the scope of my attention. Pakistan, once distant from my analytical focus, can no longer be ignored. The catalyst was a single, tragic incident that shook the region. On April 22, 2025, terrorists attacked tourists in Baisaran Valley near Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killing 26 and injuring 20. The assailants reportedly singled out Hindu tourists, asking them their religion before opening fire. This brutal act, the deadliest targeting civilians in India since the 2008 Mumbai attacks, has reignited tensions between India and Pakistan. India has responded by suspending the Indus Waters Treaty, expelling Pakistani diplomats, and sealing borders, prompting reciprocal actions from Pakistan. While an outright war remains improbable, the trajectory is unmistakable: the region is entering a period of heightened volatility, and Pakistan is now squarely within my radar.
Let’s not jump to conclusions. The precise circumstances surrounding the incident remain unclear to us, and we lack definitive information regarding Pakistan’s potential involvement. However, irrespective of the factual basis of Pakistan’s connection to the attacks, the prevailing perception in India is the critical factor. Given the already heightened anti-Pakistan sentiment within Indian media, any denials from Pakistan regarding involvement are unlikely to be received favourably or believed in India. At the time of penning this in early May, the two countries were engaged in a kind of cold war. The situation may have further deteriorated by the time you read this.
This places Pakistan on a bad wicket. Not that they were on a good one before. Pakistan has already been navigating a complex landscape of political fragility following contentious elections and grappling with a fragile coalition government. Economically, while there were signs of stabilization with a projected GDP growth of around 3% for the current year and a current account surplus in the first half of the fiscal year, the country was still facing substantial vulnerabilities including a narrow tax base, persistent unemployment contributing to social unrest, and concerns about long-term debt sustainability. Socially, Pakistan continued to grapple with significant issues including a rise in extremism and intolerance towards religious and ethnic minorities, a challenging security situation with ongoing militant activities, and restrictions on internet freedom and democratic processes, all of which contributed to a tense and uncertain environment within the nation during this period of heightened external crisis.
So it could be the best time, perhaps, to analyse the Pakistani mind. At this precise moment, the Pakistani mind appears brittle, fragmented by historical grievances, disillusioned by economic stagnation, and dominated by a state machinery that often favours denial over reform.
The roots of Pakistan’s national insecurity lie in its birth. Partition was a bloody and traumatic rupture. The idea of Pakistan, envisioned by Muhammad Ali Jinnah as a homeland for Muslims, was intellectually fragile and logistically chaotic. Unlike India, which inherited the infrastructure and narrative of continuity from British rule, Pakistan began life in a state of emergency, both politically and psychologically. It had to define a history, rebuild a national identity from the previous British India, and assert its legitimacy — all while dealing with violence, refugee crises, and hostile neighbours. That early trauma, unresolved and largely unexamined within Pakistan, continues to shape its view of itself and the world.
India’s relationship with Pakistan extends far beyond a shared border; it serves as a fundamental “existential reference point” shaping Pakistan’s core national policies. This isn’t merely about geographical proximity but a deeply ingrained dynamic where India’s actions and attributes heavily influence Pakistan’s strategic thinking, particularly in defence and foreign affairs. The Kashmir conflict, a dispute ongoing since the partition of British India in 1947 and the cause of multiple wars, remains the most visible and emotionally charged manifestation of this dynamic. However, the influence runs deeper, fueled by India’s contrasting trajectory in key areas.
India’s sustained democratic resilience, despite its own challenges, stands in stark contrast to Pakistan’s history of political instability and military interventions. While India has held regular elections and maintained a democratic framework, Pakistan has experienced numerous periods of military rule. This democratic continuity, even with its imperfections, projects an image of stability that can amplify Pakistan’s sense of political fragility. Economically, India’s per capita GDP of USD 2,718 in 2024 is nearly double that of Pakistan at USD 1,581. The figures were almost the same till 1980, and then till 2012, Pakistan was leading. This economic disparity creates a sense of being left behind and unable to compete effectively. Furthermore, India’s advancements in technology, particularly in sectors like IT and space, further accentuate this perceived inadequacy.
Instead of viewing India’s successes as a source of inspiration or an opportunity for mutually beneficial partnership, Pakistan’s dominant approach has often been one of rivalry. This competition is deeply embedded within the national psyche, with anti-India rhetoric being institutionalized through educational curricula, media narratives, and even military doctrine. This ingrained rivalry, while perhaps intended to foster national unity and purpose, has ultimately led Pakistan down a path of perpetual competition with a much larger and faster-growing neighbour, a competition that many analysts believe Pakistan is ill-equipped to win, yet strategically feels unable to abandon due to deeply entrenched narratives and security doctrines. Pakistan’s military doctrine, for instance, has historically been significantly “Indo-centric,” with a considerable focus on countering perceived threats from its eastern neighbour. This constant state of tension and competition diverts resources and attention away from potentially more productive internal development and regional cooperation.
The real power in Pakistan typically resided with the military, which views itself as the guardian of national ideology and sovereignty. Even during civilian governments, the military has controlled foreign policy, especially concerning India, Afghanistan, and the United States. This militarized governance has weakened democratic institutions, undermined judicial independence, and stifled political dissent. Politicians serve at the pleasure of generals. In such an environment, national psychology suffers: when power is concentrated in unelected hands, a culture of fear, fatalism, and conspiracy thinking thrives.
Pakistan’s economic journey since its independence in 1947 has also been a complex tapestry of periods of growth, stagnation, and recurring crises, shaped by political instability, external shocks, and policy choices. It is one of the missed opportunities. Once seen as comparable to South Korea and Malaysia in the 1960s, Pakistan is now repeatedly bailed out by the IMF.
In fact, the early decades did see modest growth as the nation focused on building foundational industries like textiles and agriculture. The 1960s marked an era of rapid industrialization and agricultural productivity, with a high GDP growth rate of 6-7%. However, the 1970s brought nationalization policies and political turmoil, leading to economic stagnation and a decline in growth to 3-4%. The 1980s saw structural adjustments and moderate growth of 5-6%. The 1990s were characterized by mixed growth and periods of stagnation, averaging around 4-5%. The 2000s witnessed a peak growth of 7-8% during the Musharraf era, fueled by economic liberalization. However, the 2010s brought fluctuations due to the global financial crisis and persistent structural challenges, with average growth around 3-5%. More recently, Pakistan has faced significant balance of payment crises and continues to grapple with issues like high fiscal deficits, inadequate resource allocation, and vulnerability to external shocks, highlighting the ongoing challenges in achieving sustained and stable economic development.
Pakistan’s economic trajectory has been further hampered by the underutilization of its abundant human resources. Despite a large youth bulge, with two-thirds of the population under 30, the country has struggled to translate this demographic dividend into sustained economic growth. Factors such as a low literacy rate of around 63% in 2023, coupled with inadequate skill development and vocational training, limit the potential of a significant portion of the workforce. The unemployment rate, which was reported at 5.5% in 2023, masks a deeper issue of underemployment, where many, especially educated youth, are working in jobs below their skill level. Furthermore, low public spending on education (1.7% of GDP in 2023) and healthcare contributes to poor human capital development, hindering productivity and innovation. This failure to adequately invest in and effectively utilize its human capital represents a significant lost opportunity for Pakistan’s socio-economic progress.
At present, Pakistan’s export base remains narrow, its tax collection dismal, and its public debt ballooning. Elites thrive while the masses remain trapped in poverty. Crucially, the country’s economic underperformance is tied to its strategic insecurity. A bloated defence budget, driven by the India-obsession, diverts resources from education, health, and innovation. Meanwhile, comparisons with India’s booming tech sector and global investments only intensify national frustration. The Pakistani psyche is caught between pride and helplessness.
Pakistan’s identity is in flux, too. The national identity of Pakistan is currently undergoing significant change, uncertainty, and redefinition. Nearly eight decades after its creation, Pakistan still struggles with a fundamental question: Who is the Pakistani? The country’s ethnic mosaic — Punjabis, Sindhis, Baloch, Pashtuns, Mohajirs — has never fully coalesced into a shared national identity. Add to this a confused relationship with religion and history. Is Pakistan a South Asian Muslim state, an ideological Islamic republic, or a would-be Middle Eastern power? The Arabization of culture, the sidelining of local languages, and the rewriting of history textbooks have produced an identity crisis that runs deep. Without a clear answer to the question of self, national unity remains fragile.
For Pakistan to emerge from its multifaceted crises, it must embark on a journey of national introspection and bold reform. Recovery cannot be engineered by external alliances or reactive policies alone—it must begin at home. The Pakistani state needs to pivot from security-centric governance to one grounded in economic renewal, civic trust, and inclusive national identity. A resilient democracy, a professional and accountable military, and a merit-driven civil service are not optional luxuries but fundamental pillars for stability.
The fixation on India must end—not through capitulation, but through maturity. No thriving nation defines its future by obsessing over a neighbour’s past. Pakistan must recognize that its strength will not come from parity with India, but from charting its own independent course—one driven by regional trade, technological innovation, education reform, and meaningful devolution of power to its provinces. The obsession with being “not-India” has blinded Pakistan to its potential.
A generational opportunity exists to redefine what it means to be Pakistani—not as a reactive identity formed in opposition to others, but as a confident and pluralistic expression of its own diverse peoples and histories. Reclaiming local cultures, investing in youth, and embracing open debate over rigid dogma can form the bedrock of a renewed national narrative.
Pakistan’s path forward is not easy, but it is possible. It requires courage from its leaders, resilience from its people, and a willingness to finally look inward rather than across the border. In doing so, Pakistan can stop being a country at war with itself and start becoming the republic it was always meant to be.