SOLAR ECLIPSE?

Perhaps India is an apt case study to understand ground realities. This is a country that was determined to spread the adoption of solar power for electricity generation for good reason. India’s solar potential is high – around 750 GW in aggregate. Most areas could generate 4.5 – 5.0 kWh per square meter of photovoltaic cells, and potential in some areas reaching a high of 5.5 kWh/m2. India has a separate Ministry for New and Renewable Energy, established in 1992, in its list of 54 ministries. It’s really serious about the potential.

National Solar Mission (NSM) of India, launched in 2010, had set a target for development and deployment of 20 GW solar capacity by 2022. This was nearly seven times of Sri Lanka’s then aggregate demand. However, India wasn’t satisfied. A country that already generates 372 GW – the third-largest electricity producer worldwide – wanted to be greener. In 2015 India raised its target for renewable energy to 100 GW by the same year, 2022. This added 60 GW from wind, 10 GW from biomass and 5 GW from small hydro-power stations. Additionally, the plan included connecting 1 GW and 0.5 GW solar power plants to the grid – each based on Solar Thermal (ST) and Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) technologies. This was to be supplemented with rooftop generation at a smaller scale. With just two years to go for the deadline, India is clearly behind its target. The cumulative solar power installations at end 2019 was just 36 GW, with large scale projects accounting for 31.5 GW (88%) and rooftop solar 4.5 GW (12%). During 2020 it may not be able to advance these numbers due to COVID-19’s impacts. But it’s noteworthy that, of India’s aggregate electricity production nearly 10% is now from solar.

On the face of it, Sri Lanka’s own commitment to solar is unimpressive. While Sri Lanka does focus on renewable energy, it appears sources like wind get prominence. The national policy ‘Vistas for Prosperity and Splendor’ makes references to the term ‘solar’ twice. One is regarding the plans for 800 MW solar generation plants in Mannar, Poonareyn and Monaragala the other about the government’s intention to encourage rooftop solar systems to ensure availability of low-cost energy for households and small businesses.

Ceylon Electricity Board (CEB) too appears to be all for solar. “Sri Lanka, being located within the equatorial belt, has substantial potential in solar resource,” says the draft of Long Term Generation Expansion Plan for the decade 2020-2039 of CEB. It continues: “Solar resource maps of the country indicate the existence of higher solar resource potentials in the northern half, eastern and southern parts of the country. Resource potential in other areas including mountainous regions is mainly characterized by climatic and geographical features. The exploitation of available resources requires the consideration of competing land uses and the availability of transmission and distribution infrastructure.” Currently, 45% of the total electricity demand is generated by renewable sources when rainfall is average. In periods of high rainfall renewable energy’s share of electricity generation increases to 50%. Most of Sri Lanka’s renewable energy comes from large hydro plants built during the 1980s’. CEB does not plan to maintain unchanged ratios in the next 20 years. It forecasts ‘Other Renewable Energy’ share (excluding large hydro plants) to slightly rise. So where are we with solar? The renewable share in electricity has increased due to capital intensive large scale hydro projects. Sri Lanka’s share of installed solar capacity on the grid is 6.4% or 270 megawatts at end 2019. But that’s just a fraction of the potential. Industry groups blame successive governments for delaying projects, if implemented, that could have added 1.5 GW to the grid. They also claim that plans to generate 225 MW of solar energy from five projects, included in the Long Term Generation Expansion Plan of Public Utilities Commission of Sri Lanka (PUCSL) in 2015, never materialized. Identified locations of these projects were at Valachchenai (10 MW), Welikanda in Polonnaruwa (10 MW), Siyambalanduwa (100 MW) and Poonareyn (100 MW).

SRI LANKA’S SHARE OF INSTALLED SOLAR CAPACITY ON THE GRID IS 6.4% OR 270 MEGAWATTS AT END 2019. BUT THAT’S JUST A FRACTION OF THE POTENTIAL

This is in the backdrop. Global renewable electricity capacity is excepted to expand to over 920 GW, with solar taking 740 GW. The share of solar is more than the combined total electricity demand of India and Japan combined today. Although installed photovoltaic capacity still remains lower today than that of wind power and hydroelectricity, the dramatic drop in its production costs over the last ten years, could see solar’s share of the renewable cake increase. If we were to ignore this international trend, Sri Lanka would be one among the few countries that do not benefit from this global phenomenon.

One state in India that does consistently well is Tamil Nadu where the government has committed to achieving an installed capacity of 9 GW by 2023, announced in it’s Solar Energy Policy 2019. The state currently produces a little over 2 GW. The policy also lays down some definite goals like a mandatory requirement for all public buildings to meet 30% of their electricity requirements from solar energy within four years. A 2018 report lists Tamil Nadu as one of the top nine renewable energy markets in the world. Sri Lanka’s electricity policy execution has been poor. Unfortunately, we could not see the government and industry working together while each claiming individually well prepared. Coronavirus may have slowed many developments but that shouldn’t be an excuse for not exploiting a market ready for natural expansion.