My first visit to post-conflict Jaffna was in October 2011. Then the region had hardly recovered. Our night bus encountered numerous checkpoints along the way, which made the journey quite challenging. Getting down in the cold to undergo repeated physical inspections was far from pleasant. The entire trip took more than 12 hours via the A4 route, with stops and the road conditions deteriorating significantly after Vavuniya. For me, the exhaustion from the arduous journey led to multiple instances of vomiting.
To our relief, the bus stopped for breakfast at a small half-built restaurant in Kilinochchi operated by the Army and served as the sole establishment offering a decent meal. There was a short period when only the Army was running businesses in the North as no civilians volunteered to. Finding suitable accommodations for the night was a challenge too as the options were limited. Eventually, we secured lodging at a house rented by Sarvodaya near the old park area, which remained in its dilapidated state.
If my memory serves me right, even two years after the conflict, there was no electricity in many areas of Jaffna town. I distinctly remember walking along dark roads heavily guarded by the Army, whose presence was conspicuous. The overall condition of the place made it seem scarcely habitable, resembling a ghost town. The railway station remained in ruins, and the Jaffna bus stand had transformed into a large, muddy pool. The streets were contaminated, surpassing the level of pollution I had observed in slum areas in India or Bangladesh. It became apparent that the Northern Province was yearning for change, though uncertainty loomed over when it would come. The path to progress remained unclear.
After a decade and a half since the end of the conflict, the current Northern landscape bears little resemblance to the past. The journey from Colombo to Jaffna by bus now takes less than six hours, while efforts are underway to renew the railway tracks, making train travel between the two cities possible within six to seven hours or even less. Sri Lanka Railways plans to operate eight trains daily one way. Accommodations have increased with 84 listed on booking.com as of June 2024. Hotel prices in Jaffna remain relatively affordable compared to those in Colombo, Kandy, and the Southern coast, as the destination has yet to establish itself as a prominent tourist attraction. The education sector thrives as schools and universities operate normally. Palaly has undergone a significant transformation, now serving as an international airport. The once-dark roads of 2011 are now adorned with vibrant billboards illuminating the night. The remnants of conflict are scarce, as the northern peninsula remarkably transforms into a thriving economic powerhouse.
I am not a frequent visitor to the Eastern Province. Based on the available video footage on YouTube, it is evident that Batticaloa, Trincomalee, and Ampara too have undergone a similar transformation, though to a lesser extent. The construction of the new 300-meter-long Kallady Bridge is significant to the infrastructure development in the Eastern Province, and extensive efforts have been made to reconstruct thousands of houses and build over 800km of rural roads damaged during the conflict period. While the progress may not be as readily apparent as in the Jaffna district, the Eastern Province has made significant strides in overcoming the aftermath of the conflict in its unique manner.
The North, East and the Rest
How have the North and East economically transformed in the post-conflict period? One way to assess this transformation is by examining the provincial-level per capita GDP (Figure 1)
In 2022, Sri Lanka’s overall per capita GDP was $3,354. The distribution of GDP across provinces was hardly uniform: The Western Province, with a per capita GDP of $5,966, enjoyed a higher standard of living compared to countries like Iraq or Guatemala. On the other hand, the rest of the provinces had significantly lower per capita GDPs, often around $3,000 or lower. The Eastern Province was the least developed, while the Northern Province performed relatively better, on par with countries like Papua New Guinea and Angola. It was on par with Sabaragamuwa and Southern Provinces.
These figures do not place Sri Lanka in a position to be complacent. The goal should not be to compare oneself to countries like Iraq or Papua New Guinea, but rather to strive for higher standards of development and well-being. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the Northern and Eastern Provinces have made progress over the past two decades. Previously, they had no meaningful development, with Prabhakaran and his team partially cutting them off from the rest of the country.
The other way to look at this is through the provincial contribution to the national GDP. Despite comprising 28.7% of the country’s land area and accounting for 13% of its population, the joint contribution of the North and East regions to the GDP stands only at 9.3% (Figure 2). Although the agricultural sector surpasses the national average at 16.4%, there is room for improvement in the industries and services sectors, which currently stand at 8.5% each.
Potential Unleashed
The Northern and Eastern Provinces can now look forward to unhindered development, as many of the historical political and economic impediments that have plagued progress and fueled a protracted 30-year conflict have finally been resolved. The minority dominance in these regions will no longer serve as a barrier to advancement. This newfound freedom presents a remarkable opportunity for these provinces to forge stronger international relationships and embrace the dynamic global market conditions.
Future investment opportunities in both of these provinces hold significant potential. The Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora comprises over 3 million individuals, primarily residing in North America, Europe, India, and Australasia. The majority had migrated since the mid-1980s to escape the conflict in the region. While many initially supported Tamil nationalist causes, a substantial number have since reevaluated their perspectives following the incidents in 2009. The Tamil diaspora has fostered multidimensional connections that strengthen the relationship between diaspora communities and their homeland and among different diaspora settlements worldwide. Numerous individuals have already contributed to the development of the Northern Province through investments and remittances. This “diaspora effect” was pivotal to establishing new economic hubs in the North, particularly in Achchuveli and Nelliady.
To be fair, the government has already made efforts to address the concerns of minorities within the political system, and presently there is a greater representation of minority groups in the political landscape. Although not all demands for power devolution have been met, minority leaders possess adequate decision-making authority concerning Tamil-speaking regions. De-centralized budgets empower them to execute development projects independently and foster strong relationships with the general public. While challenges remain, progress can be made within this framework.
The central government must continue to promote economic growth, but with more vigour, in these two provinces. While the market will naturally expand, the government must pave the way. Presently, foreign investments in Sri Lanka face significant obstacles that hinder their flow. This must be immediately addressed.
Firstly, the government must tackle critical challenges such as land ownership and policy uncertainty. This should lead to simplifying trade processes and enhancing logistical capabilities. Additionally, the government should focus on fostering innovation by supporting start-ups and SMEs and addressing labour-related concerns. At a higher level, the government should promote trade policy reforms, relax foreign exchange controls, and update business regulations for a modern world.
The second area of focus should be education. The Northern and Eastern Provinces boast rich educational traditions that have spanned centuries. Even the prominent statues in the major towns of these provinces depict educators rather than politicians. While the education culture in the South may differ from that of the North and East, it should not hinder these valuable traditions. Improving the educational facilities in these regions is imperative to ensure that they contribute a significant proportion of STEM graduates in Sri Lanka. Additionally, it is worth considering the potential establishment of private and fee-based state universities in these provinces.
Thirdly, one should explore the possibility of the promotion of tourism. These destinations have immense tourism potential but do not get enough exposure in promotional campaigns, perhaps due to a mindset problem. Thus, despite being home to numerous attractions, they attract few foreign visitors. This can be attributed to two primary factors: their distance from Colombo and limited publicity. This issue can be addressed by adopting a holistic approach to tourism promotion, which includes a wide range of activities specifically targeted at promoting the North and East regions.
The transformation of the North and East regions is a significant testament to the nation’s progress in post-conflict development. This effort also plays a pivotal role in promoting national integration by acknowledging it as a collective national endeavour rather than a purely regional one.