I am India — your didi (elder sister), home to 1.4 billion individuals and the world’s largest democracy. With a staggering economy of $18 trillion (PPP), I proudly stand as the globe’s third-largest economic powerhouse, just after the USA and China. My dynamic consumer market and booming services sector, especially in information technology, make me a pivotal engine of global growth. On the world trade stage, I rank as the 10th-largest importer and 8th-largest exporter, connecting my vibrant markets to every corner of the planet. Culturally, my influence knows no bounds: my rich diaspora, the universal appeal of yoga, the magic of Bollywood, and my diverse, flavourful cuisines have found a place in millions of hearts worldwide. As I skillfully navigate the complexities of today’s geopolitical landscape, my position as a key architect of the 21st century is not just significant, it is truly undeniable.
This context is essential for me to truly address your question:What do I, your ‘didi’ (elder sister), think of you, my ‘chota bhai’ (little brother), Sri Lanka?
Let me be candid. Most of the time, you’re simply not on my mind. It’s not out of indifference, but rather because my attention is pulled in so many directions. Picture this: I’m constantly navigating unresolved border disputes and intense strategic competition with my two not-so-friendly, nuclear-armed neigh- bours: China and Pakistan. Then, every day, I wrestle with rising unemployment, especially among my vast youth population. My economy struggles to generate enough quality jobs for the millions of young people stepping into the workforce each year. Layer on top of that the relentless climate crises — scorching heatwaves, punishing droughts, and devastating floods — that challenge my resilience. Internally, I grapple with political polarisation, social inequality, and communal tensions, all of which threaten the very fabric of my unity. Regional conflicts and insurgencies in the Northeast and areas affected by left-wing extremism drain precious resources. So, with all these monumental challenges demanding my focus, do you really think I have much time to dwell on a modest $80 billion economy in my backyard?
Yet, there are indeed rare moments when my thoughts turn to you. These moments are different, since they’re not the tense, calculated thoughts I reserve for China, Pakistan, or now even the USA. With you, there’s always been a soft spot in my heart, something I’ve never felt for them. That affection has always been there. True, there have been times when I could have been — and perhaps was — a bit tough on you. Remember 1987? But despite the occasional rough patch, we’ve managed to maintain a warm and friendly relationship through the decades. Sometimes I find myself wondering what makes you so special to me. Maybe it’s the shared tapestry of faiths, including Buddhism, Hinduism, Islam, and even Christianity, that bind us together. No other country mirrors the vibrant diversity that flourishes on my own soil the way you do. I worried for you numerous times throughout the last 77 years, starting with your independence. During the first 50 years, you had several political upheavals, such as assassinations, armed insurrections, and communal riots, which were not unusual in many Asian nations. Still, the 30-year war was unique. Then followed the tsunami, which claimed the lives of tens of thousands on both sides of the Palk Strait. When you emerged from the chaos in 2009, I was among the happiest. Then, unkindly, came the Easter attacks. In 2022, I was saddened to see you going through a difficult time financially. I’m relieved that all of that is history.
That is not to say that I no longer have reasons to worry about you. In fact, I have more concerns right now than I ever have. Allow me to elaborate.
Let me draw your attention to Figure I. These are the GDP growth rates of five South Asian countries against world average, as calculated by AI using official numbers provided by the IMF. Figures for and after 2025 are reasonable estimates, as international entities rarely publish precise year-by-year forecasts this far ahead. They may be subject to change, but I believe they still serve our purpose as rough indicators.
What do you see here? While my sister Bangladesh and I have demonstrated solid growth rates that are approximately double the average world GDP growth rate and roughly the average South Asian rate for the same years, Sri Lanka has consistently been the lowest, except for Pakistan, barely above the world average. The story is that South Asia is growing twice as fast as the rest of the world, with Bangladesh and Nepal joining in, despite their internal political challenges, but Sri Lanka appears to have missed the bus. I excluded the Maldives and Bhutan for the sake of simplicity, yet even these two small states outperform Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka’s growth is slightly stronger right now, however this will not endure long due to the repeating load of debt.
Don’t you find this disturbing? I do.
Let me show you another figure. Figure II shows the per capita GDP for the years 2015, 2020 and 2025 (estimates) for Sri Lanka and four South East Asian countries.
The narrative is considerably more troubling. Both the Philippines and Vietnam, which trailed Sri Lanka in 2015, have gradually caught up in the last 10 years, with much greater growth rates today. Indonesia, which was somewhat behind Sri Lanka in 2015, is now far ahead. For the past 10 years, Sri Lanka’s per capita GDP has expanded by only approximately $500, or $50 annually. This per se does not tell the entire story. From 2015 to 2025 Philippines will double their exports from $59 billion to 117 billion. Vietnam will do even better by improving their exports 250%, from $162 billion to 410 billion. Sri Lanka, on the other hand, will take a short jump of 10% in its exports, to a mere $19 billion. It looked like you were about to catch up with Thailand soon in 2025, but now the gap has widened. I hope you get what I mean. Do you feel content with this type of a report card? Then, just out of curiosity, I asked AI to extrapolate the values for 2030, and it gives Sri Lanka a per capita GDP of $6,200 and exports $27 billion. The GDP figure is not bad, but I am not satisfied with the exports. My dear chota bhai, you could do a lot better.
I can show you another figure, but to keep things simple, I’ll just give you only the narrative.
“The story is that South Asia is growing twice as fast as the rest of the world, with Bangladesh and Nepal joining in, despite their internal political challenges, but Sri Lanka appears to have missed the bus.”
In India, we calculate per capita GDP at the state level to gain a better understanding of the overall picture. By 2014, when Narendra Modi took office, only two Indian states had overtaken Sri Lanka in that figure: Delhi Union Territory and Goa. After a little over 10 years, we now have four states above Sri Lanka. Haryana, Karnataka, Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are likely to outperform Sri Lanka in the next ten years due to their greater growth rates. Please keep in mind that these states are larger than Sri Lanka and thus have greater GDP estimates. Some of them are on the way to becoming industrial power houses. I believe you comprehend the bigger picture. Sri Lanka is located in the centre of a rapidly growing region, so everything is viewed at a comparative rate. Sri Lanka is also rising, no doubt, albeit at a slower rate. True, you have shown a remarkable recovery from the economic issues you have encountered. All that is true. Meanwhile, I, India, and several of my neighbours are expanding faster. Imagine a mediocre performance among a few very high ones. That leaves a possible ‘sick-man’ in the middle. Mind you, until recently, that term was reserved only for Pakistan.
“In 2014, only the Indian states of Delhi Union Territory and Goa had a higher GDP per capita than Sri Lanka. Today, four Indian states surpass Sri Lanka on this measure. Over the next decade, Haryana, Karnataka, Telangana, Gujarat, Maharashtra, and Tamil Nadu are expected to do so as well.”
I would rather not see anybody use it for Sri Lanka. You may understand, throughout our post independent history, that this is not what we expected from Sri Lanka. We envisioned it to be the Singapore of South Asia, a little, highly advanced island that led the rest of the area. I hope you understand that the exact reverse is now happening. We understand the reasons for this. Since 2010, Sri Lanka has been severely mismanaging its financial affairs. This has resulted in an Argentina in the Indian Ocean. Multiple governments’ plans have failed to achieve the expected level of success. It was like a man attempting to run with his legs tied. This is a difficult task.
Still, Sri Lanka cannot continue to utilise this excuse. It has now reached the stage where there is no other option except to evolve. If this does not happen, another public protest, similar to the previous one, may occur. Like the ones that are still happening in Bangladesh and Nepal. These are costly affairs, both politically and economically.
My little brother, allow me to provide a recommendation that will benefit both of us. Why don’t we see our futures coincide? Why overlook the fact that your neighbour will have a $20 trillion GDP (PPP) by 2030? You know, there will be a lot of potential for smaller economies when the neighbourhood economy is so big. Are you prepared to take advantage of these chances? Let me take one example. Your nearest neighbour, Tamil Nadu is emerging as a global manufacturing powerhouse, transitioning from its traditional base in automobiles and textiles to become a key hub for high-tech industries. The state is now a leader in electric vehicle (EV) manufacturing, with major investments from companies like Ola Electric, Ather Energy, and VinFast. It is also establishing itself as my foremost exporter of electronics, with companies
like Foxconn and Pegatron setting up large-scale plants to produce goods for international brands like Apple.
“Imagine Sri Lanka as the gleaming gateway to South Asia: a hub for transshipment, renewable energy innovation, and IT excellence, drawing billions in Indian investments and boosting your exports threefold by 2030.”
This rapid growth is driven by a combination of factors: a robust and diverse industrial ecosystem, well-developed physical infrastructure that includes ports and highways, a large pool of skilled engineering talent, and proactive government policies that offer investor-friendly incentives and streamlined approvals. My questions: Why don’t you ask yourself, ‘What’s there for me in all that?’ Do you ever plan to place yourself in that supply chain? I am sure, given your location, you have the best chance.
The core strategy is to move beyond traditional trade and integrate into my regional supply chain. This can be achieved by prioritising a more comprehensive economic and technology agreement (ETCA) and improving physical connectivity, such as through a land bridge and a petroleum pipeline. This integration would transform you into a key logistics and transshipment hub for goods and services. You know, we can even think of a single economic zone in the long term. If you do not want to move that fast, you can still strategically develop key sectors to attract Indian investment and align with its growth. By focusing on high-tech manufacturing, IT, and renewable energy, you can become a crucial partner in my expanding industry. Digital and monetary integration, like enabling UPI (Unified Payments Interface) payments, will also facilitate seamless tourism and trade, fostering closer economic cooperation at every level of the economy. My dear chota bhai, as we stand on the cusp of a transformative era, the opportunities are endless. Let’s envision a shared horizon where our bonds transcend mere affection into a symphony of economic synergy. Imagine Sri Lanka as the gleaming gateway to South Asia: a hub for transshipment, renewable energy innovation, and IT excellence, drawing billions in Indian investments and boosting your exports threefold by 2030. This isn’t just recovery; it’s rebirth, turning past stumbles into stepping stones for unparalleled growth. Together, we’ll defy regional laggards, creating jobs, stability, and prosperity that echo our cultural kinship. The opportunities are ripe — seize them with me, and let’s co-author a narrative of triumph, where little brother rises as an equal partner in the world’s fastest-growing region. The future beckons; answer it boldly.
Chanuka Wattegama chanuka@hotmail.com is a
policy researcher. The ideas expressed are personal.